Earthquake
Expert Says San Andreas Fault Primed for the “Big One”—Invest in Early Warning
Tech
IN BRIEF
Earthquake experts say the San Andreas
fault is gearing up for the next “Big One.”
Investing in monitoring
technologies and infrastructure changes may just offset the catastrophic
consequences of the inevitable 7.9 or higher magnitude future earthquake.
THE
NEXT BIG ONE?
Thomas Jordan, the director of the Southern
California Earthquake Center, made some statements during his
keynote address last night at the National Earthquake Conference that has
raised some eyebrows…and more than a few heart rates.
“The springs
on the San Andreas system have been wound very, very tight. And the southern
San Andreas fault, in particular, looks like it’s locked, loaded and ready to
go,” he
said.
The last major temblor to strike the
southern San Andreas fault system occurred in 1857—when the region was more
untamed Wild West than glamorous (and heavily populated) Hollywood. That quake,
the “Fort Tejon
earthquake,” was a magnitude 7.9, comparable to the recent shakeup
that struck Ecuador on April
16.
Ironically, the problem is that there have
been so few major earthquakes in Southern California. This seems
counterintuitive, but minor or mid-range quakes are a good thing, since they
act to relieve tectonic stresses, and prevent them from accumulating in the
first place.
But the San Andreas fault has not relieved
these stresses for over a century; elsewhere, plate tensions have been
gathering for much longer, upwards of 200-300 years.
INVESTING
IN NEW TECH
In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey
released some pretty frightening figures. They estimated that a
magnitude 7.8 temblor along the southern San Andreas fault zone would occasion
over 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and over $200 billion in long-term damages.
Jordan’s warning should come as a wake-up
call for city planners, engineers, and public safety personnel in Southern
California, and is a powerful reminder—particularly in light of the many major
earthquakes that have struck heavily populated areas since the beginning of the
21st Century—of the importance of investing in earthquake detection and
earthquake-proofing technology.
Supercomputer technology, for instance, has
enabled researchers to simulate the catastrophic effects of these “big shakes”
on the cities and populous regions of the threatened area. Such a supercomputer
simulation, run at the Southern California Earthquake Center in 2010, showed
the unexpected effects of a magnitude 8 quake on the L.A. Basin—a consequence
of liquefaction of the soft soils in the basin.
And more recent simulations cited by Jordan
indicate that although Los Angeles is 30 miles away from the San Andreas fault,
the San Gabriel mountains would likely reflect seismic waves back toward the
city, increasing the danger.
The San Andreas fault is probably already
the most heavily studied and monitored earthquake-prone area in the world, but
further investment in early warning seismometers and detection technology may just give threatened populations
the edge they need to survive the next major catastrophe.
And shoring up weaknesses in building
materials, construction methods, telecommunication systems, and aqueducts would
significantly lessen the impact and shorten the post-disaster recovery time.
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