The
overwhelming scientific consensus is that global warming poses a significant
threat to our health, our economy, and our environment.
Global
warming is the rise in global temperatures caused by the buildup of carbon
dioxide and other emissions in the atmosphere, that trap the sun's heat, like a
blanket.
Learn
what global warming means for our rivers and water supply - and what steps we
can take to meet the challenges ahead.
Climate
change is likely to have significant impacts on the availability of freshwater.
.
Already in short supply throughout many parts of the world, water for human consumption, agriculture, and industry will be a major factor in economic growth, ecological sustainability, and global conflict.
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Already in short supply throughout many parts of the world, water for human consumption, agriculture, and industry will be a major factor in economic growth, ecological sustainability, and global conflict.
Research
was undertaken to make initial assessments of potential impacts of climate
change on stream flow and water balance in the western United States - a region
characterized by the shortage of water.
Additionally,
research was conducted to address the need for models, which account for the
spatial magnitude and extent of hydrologic processes.
The
models need to handle key parameters such as precipitation, soil moisture, and
evaporation, in response to changing climatic conditions.
The
models must account for vegetation interactions with soil moisture. This is
particularly important for simulating regional vegetation response to climate
change since vegetation distribution is controlled in large part by the
availability of soil moisture.
Research
focused on developing and refining detailed watershed scale hydrology models to
address stream dynamics and water storage.
Regional-scale
modeling research was directed toward developing physically and
mechanically-based water balance models, which can be spatially distributed at watershed,
regional, and continental scales.
The
research effort contributed to developing methods for spatially distributing
climatic data at scales appropriate for the models, and providing these data
bases to the climate change research community.
This
ORD project has been completed; extensions of this research are continuing
within the US Geological Survey.
So
what does all this data and modeling mean? The increasing demand for water by
population and industrial growth is creating chronic water shortages throughout
the world.
Add
to this the potential impacts of global climate change on water supplies and
chronic shortages could reach crisis levels.
Throughout
much of the western United States the supply of water for human consumption,
agriculture, and industry depends on snow pack and reservoir storage.
Most
global climate warming scenarios suggest warmer winters with more rainfall and
less snowfall for much of the western United States, which would substantially
reduce snow accumulation and shift the high flow season for many rivers from
the spring to the winter.
A
substantial amount of the natural storage of winter precipitation that
presently occurs in the snow pack would be lost resulting in increased spills in
the winter and lower reservoir levels in the summer and fall).
A
significant increase in flood hazard in the western US could result from
climate change, primarily due to an increase in rain-on-snow events).
Such
events occur when warm, wet storms move over existing snow pack. Rapid melting
of the snow pack is the result of a combination of warm air temperature, high
wind and high humidity, which cause significant condensation on the snow, and is
particularly severe in forest openings and forest clear-cuts.
This
research suggests that some mitigation of the adverse effects of global climate
change may be achieved by adapting land and water management practices to
changes in runoff patterns and maximizing the protective effects of natural
vegetation.
Global
climate changes are expected to be regional in nature, and affect land cover
and land use. Key to understanding such regional effects on water supplies is
the response of vegetation.
Plant
communities play a significant role in regional energy and water balance.
While
hydrologic models designed to simulate large river systems are good for
operating reservoirs systems, they are not adequate for predicting changes to
regional water balance and, hence, changes in regional vegetation.
These
conditions could have profound effects on vegetation distribution and
subsequently regional water resources. The ability to predict changes in
regional vegetation is necessary to evaluate the effects of climate change on
forest resources, agriculture, and water supplies.
Changes
in soil moisture and evapo-transpiration resulting from climate will have large
impacts on water and vegetation. If changes in the regional water balance are
significant, major shifts in vegetation patterns and condition are a likely).
Global
warming is projected to have far-ranging effects on rivers across the United
States and worldwide.
Although
these changes will vary from region to region, scientists expect higher average
global temperatures over the next century to cause higher river temperatures,
resulting in harm to freshwater fish like salmon and bass and significant
changes in aquatic plant and animal habitat.
In
addition, rainfall patterns will shift -some areas will get more precipitation,
some less.
Higher
temperatures will cause mountain snow pack to melt earlier in the year, causing
significant changes to river flow patterns - with less water available during
the warmer and drier summer months.
Changing water levels in our rivers poses greater challenges for farming, manufacturing, drinking water supplies and wildlife habitat.
The
supply of and demand for water will be affected dramatically by these changes,
as regions of the country that currently have wet climates are expected to
become drier and vice versa.
Some
places may experience prolonged periods of drought, while others could see a
dramatic increase in rainfall and more frequent flooding.
These
changes will have significant implications for a wide range of water uses,
including agriculture, industry, energy production, recreation, water
infrastructure/storage, waste disposal, and of course, healthy watershed
functions.
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